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Refugees as a means to an end – The EU's most dangerous man

The most dangerous man in the EU today
The most dangerous man in the EU today

One week ago we published an analysis and concrete proposal how the European Union might deal with the issue of refugees, especially Syrian asylum seekers crossing the Aegean to reach Greece, and then the Western Balkans, to get to Germany:

ESI policy proposal: Why people don't need to drown in the Aegean (17 September 2015)
Die Zeit, Andrea Böhm, "Zäune, Paragrafen, Drohungen – nützt alles nichts" ("Fences, paragraphs, threats – all to no avail") (21 September 2015)
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Michael Martens, "Auf dem Meer gibt es keine Mauern" ("There are no walls on the sea") (18 September 2015)

There were many reactions, in the media and among policy makers. This week we will publish an update, assessing the still inadequate proposals adopted in the EU.

At the same time the dangers of the failure of European leaders to address this issue are becoming clear.

While EU institutions and governments discuss how to deal with the consequences of this refugee crisis (how to register, allocate and accommodate tens of thousands) or dwell on steps which have at best an impact in the very long-term (diplomacy or limited interventions in Syria) one leader stands out for his ability to use the refugees as a mean to a very different agenda: Viktor Orban. So far, he has been astonishingly successfully.

Viktor Orban offers no credible or practical proposals how to deal with the causes of displacement; he also has no credible proposals on how to stop the loss of control on the EU's external borders. Hungary's fence is, so far, largely political symbolism: it has not halted the arrival of large numbers of refugees in the EU. But European politics, and not refugees, is what this crisis is all about in Orban's eyes. He does not need to offer a solution; he offers an interpretation of the failures of everybody else.

Orban pushes a clear narrative: the problem is the "liberalism" of European leaders, particularly, but not only, in Germany. In a speech on 5 September this year Orban puts his cards on the table: this crisis is in fact a welcome opportunity to end the EU's association with universal human rights; to effectively abolish the right to asylum for Muslim refugees, and to create a different, illiberal, Europe. He pretends to be concerned about solving a problem; in fact, he welcomes the problem and waits to benefit from a deepening crisis.

In this way Orban, who was for many years the vice president of the Liberal International (1992-2000) and then the vice president of the European People's Party, is taking aim not only at the left or at liberals, but also at the mainstream European centre-right. Orban accuses its leaders of being soft, making "mad" proposals and acting immorally.

Orban is aligned himself on what he sees as the decisive issue of the era with the European far-right of Marine Le Pen and H.C. Strache. For Orban and the far-right the refugee crisis is a means to an end. To see how, please take a few minutes to read the short text below.

This is why one should not expect any concrete proposals from him. It is urgent, however, for mainstream leaders across Europe to discuss serious and not fake proposals on how to both respect the right to asylum and control the EU's borders. It is the weakness of the mainstream that allows extreme positions like Orban's to look strong.

Many best regards,

Gerald Knaus

Gerald Knaus


A Means to an End - Refugees and Orban's crusade 

(1)

Friday, 4 September 2015, was one of the most dramatic days in the European refugee crisis. 

In Budapest, Hungarian police block thousands of refugees from entering the train station, who then set off by foot along the highway towards Austria. 

At the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban meets with his counterparts from Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. They express "profound sadness over the loss of lives of thousands of people in the context of the current migration situation in Europe." 

They call on the EU to "solve the situation in Libya, Syria and the Middle East." They also label any proposal of a mandatory quota or burden-sharing arrangement as "unacceptable.

Later that day, Germany and Austria decide to let this group of refugees pass through to Germany. 

(2)

A day later, on 5 September, media images from Munich show arriving refugees welcomed by crowds of people applauding. Refugees hold aloft pictures of Angela Merkel.

Viktor Orban would use these images to argue that the refugee crisis was caused by the German decision to let the refugees in.

In fact, Hungary had unilaterally suspended EU rules on asylum three months before (23 June), claiming that its system was "overburdened" and that the "boat is full." It made no further preparations for any arrivals throughout the summer, except, belatedly, constructing a fence. 

(3)

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Meanwhile, also on 5 September, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban comes to the region of Lake Balaton and the nearby village of Kötcse. He meets his party faithful at the annual "civic picnic". 

While others wonder what to do about the refugees crossing Hungary, Orban focuses on a much larger issue: the end of an era in Europe.

Orban is convinced that a new era, born from the chaos of the refugee crisis, offers a huge political opportunity, to him and his party.

(4)

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The meeting in Kötcse is closed to the press. The highlight: a speech by Viktor Orban. A Hungarian news site that talked to participants noted:

"For the Fidesz members … the Prime Minister and party leader made the cracks in the party disappear by switching to a higher gear on the refugee issue. The bellicosity and the eagerness that Orbán radiated made even those who had started to lose faith in the party after the infighting of 2014 feel optimistic."

Later, Orban proudly posts his speech on the official website of the prime minister's office.

(5)

Orban opens with a pledge to speak the truth plainly and directly: 

"I want to say a couple of things about the issue of asylum and immigration, but in a different context and with different vocabulary than I would do in a more public forum. I will try to speak in a way that politicians do not usually speak…"


(6)

In recent years 

"there is something which fundamentalists might call a crusade, but which moderates like me would rather describe as a challenge posed by the problem of 'the Islamization of Europe'. Someone somewhere must reveal this for what it is, must halt it, and must replace it with another, counteractive policy."

He notes that in the face of this, Hungary, and he as its leader, should offer guidance to the rest of Europe: 

"We can assume that not only in Hungary but also in Europe, people are demanding from Hungarians – and from the elected leaders of this country – that, since the good Lord has helped us through so much, we should tell them what we know."


(7)

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Orban explains: 

"we are inundated with countless immigrants: there is an invasion, they break down fences, and it is clear to us all that they are not seeking refuge, and are not running for their lives."

 (8)

So why are they coming? This crisis is not really, Orban argues, about the war in Syria. It is about the West foolishly raising expectations and making promises it could not keep: 

"They want lives like the ones which we live. The only question is why we should be surprised. Well, Ladies and Gentlemen, for years we have taught them and told them that in fact this world is a global village … We told them that there are universal human rights which apply equally to everyone, whatever corner of the Earth they may be in…

After having proclaimed global, universal human rights, having forced our ideology on them and having elevated freedom of information above all else, having sent our celebrities into their homes, now we are surprised that they are knocking on our door."


(9)

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Orban adds that these migrants have no heart, even risking the lives of their children:

"What I am about to say might seem harsh, and I apologize if anyone is offended. We all saw the picture of that little boy on the beach. No heart could remain unmoved, but still we must ask: who killed that little boy? His parents!"


(10)

Then he changes tone. He repeats, several times, that this crisis is actually an opportunity. It "offers the chance for the national-Christian ideology, way of thinking and approach to regain dominance – not only in Hungary, but throughout the whole of Europe. This is the opportunity. This will be the essence of my speech."

The refugee crisis leads to an "identity crisis. This seems to be bad news, but it is the first good identity crisis I've ever seen."


And even: 

"If we step back from the whole issue and its specific features and conceptually reflect on what is happening, then we see that we have a huge opportunity, if we fight well in this debate, to restore the prestige and appeal of national identity and Christian identity, in opposition to the liberal identity."


(11)

Hungary needs to take the lead because only here one can speak freely about what is needed: 

"even expressing these questions in these terms is not allowed in European politics, and is almost life-threatening. This is a totally Hungarian luxury… 

The fact that we are sitting here, and we can talk like this about these issues, cannot happen anywhere else in Europe. Such a meeting could not be convened in Germany, where it would not be possible to say such things; nor could it in France – and it is even risky in Poland."


(12)

 "My position is that what we are experiencing now is the end of an era: a conceptual-ideological era. Putting pretension aside, we can simply call this the era of liberal babble. This era is now at an end, and this situation both carries a huge risk and offers a new opportunity." 

The reason why this can be discussed in Hungary alone is his own government: 

 "Today liberals dominate Europe; make no mistake, the conservatives in Europe today are also liberals: not willingly, but by yielding to coercion. Because today a very large proportion of the channels through which the thoughts and policies of conservatives are interpreted and mediated are in the hands of liberals."


(13)



 

European liberalism renders Europe weak and vulnerable – a victim of its irrational generosity: 

"Europeans want to see themselves as good… Liberals also want to see themselves as good. They also have an idea of what it means to be a good person… freedom of movement, universal human rights, and so on. Now this is producing disastrous consequences." 

"I am convinced that it is no longer possible in Europe to both see ourselves as good in the liberal sense and to live in prosperity. I might say that the most dangerous combination known in history is to be both rich and weak… It is only a matter of time before someone comes along, notices your weakness, and takes what you have."


(14)

What is needed instead? A new conservative, illiberal identity, focused on the family and nation:

"I think that the Christian identity reveals to us a completely clear order of importance or priority. First of all, we are responsible for our children, then for our parents. This comes before all else. Then come those with whom we live in our village or town. Then comes our country, and then everyone else may come."

"Christian thinking is not reflected in the kind of politics which invokes compassion and understanding, but which does not recognize this order of priorities."

As to the international sphere, he noted that foreign policy "has always turned out to be about money, oil, raw materials ":

"Let us boldly state that liberal foreign policy at the world political level is nothing more or less than organized hypocrisy" 

(15 )

This new illiberal era needs new core values in everyday life. He calls for 

"everyday patriotism. This is not something of an intellectual nature, but a vital instinct, a daily routine: going into a shop and buying Hungarian products; when I want to employ someone, employing a Hungarian."

This is what the young should be taught.

(16)

And one way to strengthen this is to fight against the arrival of Muslims, even those deserving asylum. Hungary – and Europe as a whole – "must protect its ethnic and cultural composition": 

"Allow me to mention a conversation I had with a talented, experienced, but not very hopeful European politician, who was no longer in frontline politics, and who asked me to explain what I meant when I said that we do not want a significant Muslim community in Hungary. I said that the meaning of this sentence was the normal, everyday one. The reply I received was that one cannot say such a thing. I asked why not."

(17)

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This is a war which Orban intends to win for his nation:

"if Hungarians say that they do not want [Muslim migration], no one can force them to do so. In the end – and keep this in your sights – in the very end this will be the battle which we must win."

(18)

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/12011253_10153572010528758_7935443617131461112_n.jpg?oh=782b30e021d9acffe91fc885d67e4845&oe=56964FF4

Orban also explains that in the battle against liberalism and migration, Hungary needs allies: 

"The question is whether there will be enough of us in Europe who say that every country has the right to change its ethnic and cultural composition as it likes, and no country or the Union has the right to force others to do this. We are now in a good position, and we must defend this position."

Here the leader of the Austrian far-right Freedom Party, H.C. Strache, who strongly defended Orban's policy on immigration.

(19)

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/t31.0-8/11227771_10153572010573758_8023289263975402668_o.jpg

There is a need for European politicians with vision:

"instead of healthy patriotism, some unrestrained, liberal, confused babble has taken over, and where we ourselves are unable to say why we make the decisions we do, rather than right, patriotic, national everyday ones."

This illiberal message needs to be sold well: 

"The bad news is that when we do this, it must be characterized by the following words: modern, cool, trendy, sexy, upmarket."

(20)

Only those leaders who recognise the demands of this new era will survive. Earlier, in July 2015, Orban had explained that a good politician needs a clear vision of what the future will bring. In the political arena, "the winners will be those who arrive at the right conclusions more swiftly and more courageously."

Never mind those who make fun of him as a "dictator." They miss the big picture.

(21)

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On 3 September, Orban had stated at a press conference in Brussels: 

"We Hungarians are full of fear, people in Europe are full of fear, because we see that European leaders, among them prime ministers, are not able to control the situation." 

When he meets Angela Merkel, he smiles. As Orban put it in an interview with Die Presse: according to the Hungarian constitution, "the German Chancellor is always right."

At the same time he describes her ideas on how to deal with asylum seekers as "bordering on insanity." This is a message he repeats, over and over again.

(22)

He also repeats everywhere that he was the only one who had seen this crisis coming. 

In June 2015, Orban had organised a "national consultation" on immigration in Hungary. He sent a questionnaire to every household. And learned that Hungarians agreed with him: "we must support Hungarian families and children rather than migration." 

What is at stake, he keeps repeating, is "whether that which we call Europe today will at all survive."

(23)

He also argues that he is the only one who knows what to do about refugees. They should remain where they are, in camps (although 90% of Syrian refugees in Turkey are not in camps).

As Orban tells Bild Zeitung on 12 September, the EU should "celebrate a holy mass every week for Turkish president Erdogan" as a thank you to Turkey for hosting so many refugees. 

The EU should help out Turkey with more money. As the price of keeping them where they are.

(24)

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So, who is this man who attacks the proposals of other European leaders – even conservatives – as insane and calls for a return to the illiberalism of the past? What drives him? 

In 1988, at the age of 25, Viktor Orbán gave an interview to the TV programme "Fekete Doboz" (Black Box). He spoke about his youth. He also talked about his first experience with politics:

"I was a very active member of the Communist Youth League (KISZ). In secondary school, I was even the secretary of a basic KISZ organisation, until my third year in secondary school. It was a natural thing… This was a good feeling, I felt that this was the right thing to do… we had the money, we had an assembly room to hold events, why shouldn't we do this well?"

(25)

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Orban was never a dissident under communism. But in a famous speech in 1989, he seized a chance to reinvent himself. He spoke at the reburial of a pro-reform communist (Imre Nagy), who had been toppled by the Soviets in 1956 and executed two years later. 

He attacked not only communism, but also the reform communists who were at that moment preparing the transition to democracy. He demanded that Soviet troops leave Hungary.

It was astute politics, capturing the mood of the time, and it made Orban's name as a politician. But in fact, regime change was already underway. The Hungarian Socialist Worker's Party had already opened negotiations with the Opposition Roundtable on arrangements for the transition.

Three weeks later then-Hungarian foreign minister Gyula Horn and his Austrian counterpart presided over the dismantling of the barbed-wire fence and minefields separating Hungary from its western neighbor in what heralded the fall of the Iron Curtain.

(26)

One observer noted:

 "The speech was a political masterpiece. Its place in history is another question. It did not require real courage, since Grósz [the Secretary General of the Hungarian Socialist Worker's Party] had already held talks about the withdrawal of Soviet troops with Gorbachev, and by the end of 1988, he has realised that the time for the withdrawal had come. But people didn't know about this, so such a speech must have been energizing."

Orban made his name as a Jacobin: the ancien régime was dead. A new era had dawned. Moderation was no virtue. Compromise was a sin.

(27)

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So what did Orban now become? A liberal! 

He sought out influential German liberals. He also led Fidesz to join the Liberal International, the world federation of liberal parties. And the man who attacks liberalism today as an existential threat to European civilisation served, from 1992 to 2000, as vice president of the Liberal International.

(28)

On 8 February 1992, he stated "that by joining the Liberal International, Fidesz has confirmed its Western European orientation for the long run."

A news agency reported at the time: 

"According to Viktor Orbán, it is only in Hungary, where, in our region, liberals can become an alternative to the present conservative government… In the International, the party's work will be related to pragmatic questions important to liberalism, related to refugees, human rights, minorities and economic freedom."

(29)

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/t31.0-8/12045777_10153572011088758_6701645059457354737_o.jpg

Fast forward. In summer 2014, Orban declared that liberalism had no place in Hungary. He was building an "illiberal state", ready to "break with the dogmas and ideologies that have been adopted by the West, and keep ourselves independent from them." 

He explained his fascination with the success of illiberal states like Russia, China, even Azerbaijan.

 (30)

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Of course, one had to move carefully. For now. And find friends anywhere who might help. So throughout the summer of 2015 he courted in particular the Bavarian CSU, the coalition partners of Angela Merkel in Berlin.

(31)

In 2014, looking back over the previous two decades, Orban explained

"Within Fidesz – we were a radical organisation, a radical anti-communist, independence movement – we talked a lot about the question of how far we should go with our radicalism and demand deep changes, and regularly during these talks no one was able to say where that line was, which, if we cross it, may backfire. So we chose the logic of being as radical as possible…"

 (32)

Thus, Orban neatly explained away any contradiction. He had moved from being a young communist to become a liberal, then a conservative, and now an illiberal nationalist. But in each case, the common thread is that he was radical. 

Now, on 5 September 2015, Orban explained that the future was "everyday nationalism". It just needed to be expressed in "fresh and youthful language": 

"patriotic, nation-based, everyday life instincts, life advice and thoughts – together with the public opinions based on them – are not present in the debate. But we cannot avoid this battlefield, and if we do not rally to the call, it will be decided on the battlefield anyway. We must rally, go there and win, Ladies and Gentlemen! This will be a programme for many years to come…"

(33)

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He, and Hungary, could lead Europe in this battle against the left, against liberalism, against migrants and Muslims. 

This is Orban's new bet. Nobody can solve the current refugee crisis. Nobody in Hungary will blame him for refusing to try. If his fence does not work, he blames the left, which, he explains "does not like the Hungarian people"; European "liberals" and naïve conservatives.

He assumes that most people in Europe do not care about rights; that other European leaders are clueless; that a new conservatism will arise, illiberal, opposed to migration and Islamisation. Illiberalism can become cool. 

For Viktor Orban, this is, so far, a very good crisis.

The Picnic speech (5 September 2015)
Viktor Orban in Kötcse

24 September 2015



Empty Dayton straw

When you already have money for bombastic meetings, not missing any customers for speculation, to which should be applied much more serious and challenging themes of Dayton political corpse

Mijovic
By: Vlastimir Mijovic

Each story for your time. So it should be, but is not, and with that Dayton. And Bosnia could disappear, but the stories about "what would happen if it was" not ever.

On Saturday in front of the microphones and cameras Dayton's-game in Banja Luka on Monday the continuation gatherings transferred to Sarajevo, with dozens of politicians, analysts, historians, diplomats, statesmen closer look (Croatia, Slovenia) and remotely (Malaysia, Turkey). And how many will only unnecessary memorial meetings on the topic which has long been nothing to add or take away, to be held at the end of the year, when officially the twentieth anniversary of the fall of a peace agreement that is in our country (1) ended the war, when the ( 2) surrounded by chains to the bar formally keep them together, and (3) appointed supervisors (side, of course) to worry that something gets out of their control.

These three items are essential to describe the scope of the agreement negotiated in Dayton in 1995. Everything else was extorted recognition of arms created "reality" on the one hand and throwing beautiful illusion in the eyes, on the other hand. A illusions, and therefore the development dimension of Dayton, which some see as the beginning of better days, died before 16 years. Then the High Representative Wolfgang Petritsch put an end to "and" a variety of hassle with the rights of displaced persons and refugees to return to their residential property. In late October 1999, he imposed the law, and later detailed, binding instructions which tenancy rights in both entities turns into - ownership!

This "little things" in the moment of the Dayton threw in scrap metal. Its key potential and ostensible goal that pre-war colorful carpet patch return "all in your" has become empty words which are not serious politicians and now coming back, aware of the would-be returnees that since it will never be anything. Because, as soon as the Serb enabled to his apartment in Sarajevo privatized and then sold, he immediately gave his heels and the wind settled down in Milici, Bijeljina, Novi Sad, Belgrade, Banja Luka ... Bosniaks have their flats and houses sold to retail improve expelled persons living in Scandinavia or bought a condo in Sarajevo. And Croats, and to otherwise, run the same reasoning. There they are in Zagreb, Slavonia, Mostar ...
From Dayton and hollow stories about going back, definitely discouraged by converting tenancy into ownership rights, the most benefited real estate agencies, lawyers and notary offices. Hands crossed the billion marks.

Return, of course, there was not the minimum extent necessary to Bosnia and Herzegovina tries to return to their ethnic patchwork. With that have fallen into the water and all the hope that Dayton can bring anything more than silencing of weapons.

Everyone knows this, but this issue still fussing. So the easiest way - arguing somewhat about the past to which more can not be affected. A future: e, it is already more difficult. It should be well agitate brain and figure out how to changed circumstances, with three carefully enclosed courtyard national, create a concerted, each comfortable and necessary community.
When you have a pair of sets of the type mentioned Dayton commemorations, not missing any customers for speculation, to which should put much more serious and challenging themes. When the already ethnically so brutally simplified, nationally and still quarreling, to which the injured and broken Bosnia and Herzegovina can build their national and multinational brighter future? Does this formula? Is there any desire for communion?

Izetbegovic and Bosniak swear in Bosnia and Herzegovina as something next of kin. Covic and the HDZ would gladly Croats saw in a little better position, but not at two, publicly, about the fact that this country should retain the same status and border form. Even Dodik, duty Evil-view, in Banja Luka on Saturday said "he was not interested to Bosnia falls apart!"

Where is the problem? In Dayton, certainly not. The international community also. They constantly say that everything will aminovati mutually agreed local national leaders.
The problem is, of course, in those leaders in their parties and clans, the trained citizens who, without meaning to fall under the influence of his political soul caring. And the biggest problem is in all this a problem we all have; Nowhere winners, losers all alone.

"Honor" individuals, of course, political profiteers, for all these post-war years, the People's accident and misery built their happiness and personal wealth. So we still preaching some sort of Dayton guilt, trying to mask those crucial time - his!


September 21, 2015




Muslim Australia and the search for a solution to the "War on Terror"

Prof. Murray Hunter

 

There are almost 500,000 Muslims in Australia, with 400 mosques serving them. According to the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) 2012-103 Annual Report to the Australian Parliament, there are over 200 terror investigations going on. This infers that massive government resources are being ploughed into monitoring and surveillance of the Muslim community in Australia, as four Australian Prime Ministers have admitted.

There appears to be an insecurity on the part of lawmakers and successive governments about Muslim citizens in the Australian community. At first it was about immigration, and violence, which grew into terrorism after 9/11. The evidence used to support policy has not been accurate according to prominent Australian Tim Costello.

Official government comment and stories from within the Muslim community itself, indicate that the security services are spying on their own people in a similar manner they did with communist groups within the Australian community back in the 1950s and 60s.

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Prof. Murray Hunter, Australia-born notable author, innovator and entrepreneur is the MD’s Advisory Board Vice-Chairman


August 2015



The Rebirth of the Patriarch of Moscow:
Vladimir Putin’s politics in harmony with the Orthodox Church

By Dr Filippo ROMEO
 

 

The Orthodox Church and the Christian tradition have always assumed a role of primary importance in Russian history and tradition.

The origins of Christianity in Russia go back to 988 and coincide with the baptism of Prince Vladimir the Great. He had come to Constantinople, following which the evangelization of the Principality Kievan Rus’ started. The latter included the space currently occupied by the areas of Russia, the Ukraine and Belarus, considered the predecessor of the Russian Empire. Formed by Igor in 882, the Principality Kievan Rus’ is the first political form organised by the Oriental Slav tribes placed on those territories. This gave rise to the common orthodox faith and the Russian people’s sense of national belonging.

Retracing the path of the Principality one can indeed observe that the Orthodox Christian Faith was immediately embraced by those populations. It also succeeded in asserting itself in the Eastern zones, where there was b pagan influence. This barely digested the advent of the new creed and accompanied their evolution, acting as a stalwart for the Country’s national and cultural identity. Orthodoxy is even granted with Scripture, which is surely a culture’s fundamental principle. It was introduced via the spread of Christianity among the Slav tribes through the creation of the Cyrillic characters due to two great saints, Cyril and Methodius. It also constituted the prerequisite for the political and cultural development of the Principality of Kiev, leaving a heritage that would last even after its disintegration.

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Dr Filippo ROMEO,

Director, Infrastructure and Development Programme, IsAG Rome, Italy.

August 8, 2015



SIMULTANEOUS REGIONAL HEAD ELECTIONS IN INDONESIA 2015

By Igor Dirgantara

Abstract

As one of the largest democratic countries, Indonesia will execute for the first time the regional head election simultaneously in the first wave. Indonesia should be recorded in the world democratic history because there will be 269 regions consisting of 9 provinces, 36 cities and 224 districts simultaneously choose the regional head. Of course, there will be many challenges to be faced. There are some crucial issues on the implementation of simultaneous elections in Indonesia on December 9, 2015, namely: the high intensity of the conflict, the neutrality of the election organizers, list of election voters, dualism management of political parties, candidates dolls, dynastic politics, money politics, election offenses and disputes.

Keywords: Regional Head Election simultaneously, Political Party, General Election Commission (KPU), the Constitutional Court, the Election Supervisory Body (Bawaslu), list of voters, (DPT), Money Politics, Political Dynasty, Candidate Dolls, Political Campaigns , Regional Election Conflict and Dispute.

Igor Dirgantara is Lecturer at Faculty of Social Politics, University Jayabaya, Jakarta, and Director Survey & Polling Indonesia (SPIN).

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 August 1, 2015



The Future of Turkey after the Last Elections:
the Kurdish question and the economic outlook

Diego Del Priore

 

The last parliamentary elections in Turkey mark a political and an institutional turning point in the country's history. The importance of the vote derives from two main factors.

Firstly, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's Party of Justice and Development (AKP) has lost its parliamentary majority, although it remains the largest party in the Parliament with 258 seats and 40.9% of the votes. This is the first time that the party has been in this position since 2002, when the AKP swept to power and retained a majority in the Turkish Parliament. However, the AKP failed to achieve its objective of 350 seats, as the party leader and president of the Republic since August 2014, Recep Tayyp Erdogan, had hoped.

This 350 seats threshold would have allowed Erdogan to introduce a series of constitutional reforms leading to a reinforcement of the presidential system. However, Turkish voters would appear to have baulked at this prospect and have opted to maintain the existing balance of institutional power. The elections were an indirect referendum on Erdogan's constitutional intentions.

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Diego Del Priore is Research associate at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Geopolitics and Auxiliary Sciences (IsAG)

July 30, 2015



The Power of Geopolitical Discourse

By Diego Solis

 

Diego SolisGeopolitics, as a discursive practice, should be taken seriously. Unfortunately, sometimes we are so busy with our daily activities and work that we tend to ignore the fact that the media can, indeed, specialize and geopoliticize a conflict by ‘labeling’ and ‘identifying’, thus creating a sense of ‘pertinence’ amongst us, the ‘audience’; in other words, creating a binary world between ‘us’ and ‘them, the ‘other.’ This said, in order to understand the power of words and images in geopolitics, we must look back and understand how geopolitical knowledge was originally produced and thought of.

Although at first glance, while difficult to prove, the true origin of geopolitical theory may revolve around Darwinism and the rules of nature—I will not delineate the rules of nature according to Darwin but rather I will keep my argument in line with that of geopolitics and discourse. For instance, Friedrich Ratzel (a notable geographer, ethnographer and biologist), the creator of Lebensraum (the need of living space), theorized and compared the state to that of a living organism, in search of augmenting its space to support the carrying capacity of its species under its physical environment. By the same token, Rudolf Kjellen—who was actually the first political scientist to coin the term ‘geopolitics’—viewed the state in a similar manner as Ratzel: as an organic living being, with its own limbs and personality, drawing his metaphors from poetry and prose. Friedrich Ratzel (1844-1904) and Rudolf Kjellen (1864-1922), who were the creators of the German geopolitical school of thought, had something in common: they grew up between the transition of a pre-industrial society (1750-1850) and the beginning of a new industrial society in continental Europe. Eventually, the story is widely known: their theories, alongside Mackinder’s, influenced the aggressive expansionist policies of the Nazis, pushed by Major General Karl Haushofer. (from Machtpolitik to Weltpolitik)

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Diego Solis
Global South Advocate, Founder and chair of Geopolitical Explorers Consulting Group,

July 30, 2015



YOGA DIPLOMACY

By Umesh MUKHI

 

Recently, we must have witnessed the hype in Press about the International Yoga Day celebrations led by India all over the world.

The event evoked mélange of reactions, while some highly appraised the initiative there were also some criticisms as well. Moreover analysts didn’t fall short to offer their own analysis by analyzing the ancient Indian scriptures and offering their analyzing in the context of present government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. What is the essence of Yoga? How is it related with Religion? Is it a way to exercise India’s soft power? How is Yoga entering the arena of Diplomacy and International Affairs? With an intention of offering a holistic view, I will lay down some perspectives from different angles to enlighten our reader’s attention.

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July 22, 2015



Europe – Syriza-ize or Syria-nize


(Key-words: Greece, Germany, ECB, Austerity, Ukraine, crisis, Syriza, Syria, Podemos)


A freshly released IMF’s World Economic Outlook brings (yet again, for the sixth year in a row, and for the third time this year only) no comforting picture to anyone within the G-7, especially in the US and EU. Neither is comforting the latest pre-Davos summit released Oxfam study. It hints that 1% is fat and furious, as some 99% of us are too many on this planet. Will the passionately US-pushed cross-Atlantic Free Trade Area save the day? Or, would that Pact-push drag the things over the edge and mark an end of the unionistic Europe? Is the extended EU conflict with Russia actually a beginning of the Atlantic-Central Europe’s conflict over Russia, an internalization of mega geopolitical and geo-economic dilemma – who accommodates with whom, in and out of the Union? Finally, does more Ukrainian (and Eastern Europe) calamities pave the road for a new cross-continental grand accommodation, of either austerity-tired France or über- performing Germany with Russia, therefore the end of the EU? For whose sake Eastern Europe has been barred of all important debates such as that of Slavism, identity, social cohesion (eroded by the plunder called ‘privatization’), secularism and antifascism? Why do we suddenly wonder that all around Germany-led Central Europe, the neo-Nazism gains ground while only Russia insists on antifascism and (pan-)Slavism?

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Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic
Contact: anis@bajrektarevic.eu


Author is professor in international law and global political studies, based in Vienna, Austria. His previous book Geopolitics of Technology – Is There Life after Facebook? was published by the New York’s Addleton Academic Publishers. Just released is his newest book Geopolitics – Europe 100 years later.

July 9, 2015



The debt write-off behind Germany's 'economic miracle'
By Benjamin DODMAN

 

Six decades ago, an agreement to cancel half of postwar Germany's debt helped foster a prolonged period of prosperity in the war-torn continent. The new government in Athens says Greece – and Europe – now need a similar deal.
When discussing Greece’s whopping $310 billion debt, the country's new Prime Minister
Alexis Tsipras likes to recall a time when Europe's great debt offender was not Greece, but Germany, today's paragon of fiscal responsibility. The leader of the radical-left Syriza party refers in particular to an international conference held in London in 1953, during which West Germany secured a write-off of more than 50% of debt, accumulated after two world wars. Back then, with memories of Nazi atrocities still fresh, many countries were reluctant to offer such generous debt relief. But the US persuaded its European allies, including Greece, to relinquish debt repayments and reparations in order to build a stable and prosperous Western Europe that could contain the threat from Soviet Russia.


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July 9, 2015



Europe Agonistes: A Divided Continent Plays Out a Greek Drama

Jamil Maidan Flores

 

Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic recently launched a book titled, “Europe of Sarajevo 100 Years Later: From WWI to www.” Only Prof. Anis, I think, can write a book of that title, just as he’s the only intellectual I know who argues passionately that Google is the Gulag of our time, the prison of the free mind.

His editor tells us that in the book, Prof. Anis makes the case that the history of Europe, perhaps of the world, since World War I has been a history of geopolitical imperative. And that, in the face of climate change, the crisis that grips all of us is not really ecological, as it never was financial, but moral.

Prof. Anis is chairperson for international law and global political studies at the University IMC-Krems, Austria. I’ve been reading some of his recent writings. A native Sarajevan who now lives in Vienna, he doesn’t see one seamless Europe but several.


There’s Atlantic Europe, a political powerhouse that boasts two nuclear states. There’s Central Europe, an economic powerhouse. Scandinavian Europe is a little of both. And Eastern Europe that’s none of either. And beyond Eastern Europe, is a Europe-stalking Russia.

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Published June 30, 2015 in the Web Magazine "ORBUS Belgium"


Bosnian Myths[1]

Dubravko Lovrenović

The continuing disasters in human history are largely conditioned by man’s excessive capacity and his urge to identify with the tribe, the nation, the church or a common goal, and to accept a certain credo uncritically and enthusiastically although the postulates of this credo are contrary to his ratio and his own interest, and may even endanger his existence (A. Koestler, “Janus”, Erasmus 9, Zagreb, 1994).

The Bosnia and Herzegovina war (1992-1995) was preceded by a conflict which has been taking place on the “battlefield” of South Slavic historiography for longer than a century. The historiography war, along with the wider international circumstances, led to an armed conflict transforming this country into a Dayton assembly of ethnically homogenized entities and corridors – the region of a blurred and relative truth, instead of transforming it into a civil democratic country. The spirits should have been sharpened before knives. This historiographical “grinding wheel” for sharpening of nationalistic concepts has never stopped revolving, indicating that, according to Ina Merdjanova, “national ideology has remained the central part of the communism culture”, or negating a frequently repeated opinion that the frenzy for nationalistic movements and activities in Eastern Europe is a result of repressed national feelings prevailing during the communist regime.

Even a rough “reconnaissance” of Bosnian historiography – along with its positive achievements especially after World War II – reveals a mythomaniac consciousness and sub-consciousness of numerous authors. The main ailment of these pseudo-historiography projections reflects primarily in the fact that they almost exclusively dealt with the history of their ethnos, treading close upon the time rhythm of national integrations and homogenization. Thus, historiographic myths sprang from a mental base of a foreign-rules-burdened society without democratic traditions, still not close to the horizon of modernity and entrance to the civil society. This is the spring from which the torrent of hegemonistic and genocidal programs, xenophobia and atavism was unleashed. .
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June 1, 2015



Bosnia and Herzegovina:


The final phase of genocide?

Director IFIMES: Bakhtyar Aljaf

 

Recent events in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) have once again reminded how fragile peace and stability remain in this country. Although the European Union (EU) has announced it would pursue a more active policy on Bosnia and Herzegovina after the formation of new state government, other events may prevent the realisation of that promise. The Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, an alarming increase in the number of refugees from Africa and the fact that EU still has to devote much of its attention to Greece as one of its Member States – all these elements represent a real threat that the West Balkans will again be pushed down on the list of priorities of European politics.

The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina has culminated after latest actions taken by the Ministry of the Interior of Republika Srpska(MUP RS) to apprehend the members of marginalised Bosniak ethnic minority living in the territory of Republika Srpska (RS), an entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Those are the citizens who had been expelled from their homes during the 1992-1995 war in BH. This operation has been long prepared and represents the continuity of activities of RS authorities led by President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik. Almost 2000 attacks have been carried out and recorded against non-Serb returnees and their property in the territory of RS since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, without the offenders having been sanctioned.

Ljubljana, 15 May 2015

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May 15, 2015



 Media-clip: At the occasion of a book launch



Geopolitics - Europe of Sarajevo 100 years later by Anis Bajrektarević

 

For his previous book Geopolitics of Technology – Is There Life after Facebook, published by the New York’s Addleton, former Austrian Foreign Minister Peter Jankowitsch has said: “Insightful, compelling and original, this book is an exciting journey through the rocky field of geopolitics. It is also a big-thinking exploration of the least researched aspects of the discipline, which will leave no one indifferent. This book, written by an experienced lawyer and a former career diplomat, cleverly questions how we see the world, and acts as an eye opener.”

 Anis H. Bajrektarević, professor and chairperson for international law and global political studies, Uni- versity IMC-Krems, Austria. This native Sarajevan, besides this very title, authors the book FB – Geo- politics of Technology (Addleton, New York 2013), and the forthcoming No Asian century. He is both teaching and research professor on subjects such as the Geopolitics; International and EU Law; Sustainable Development (institutions and instruments). On the subject Geopolitical Affairs alone, professor has over 1,000 teaching hours at his university as well as in many countries on all meridians. His writings are frequently published in over 50 countries in all five continents, and translated in some 20 languages worldwide. He lives in Vienna, Austria.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B61JRDWKmSE (play from: 0.35.44)

https://vimeo.com/112013062 (play from: 0.57.00)

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BOSANSKA VERZIJA UDARITE OVDJE

May 11, 2015



Promocija knjige prof. dr. Anisa Bajraktarevića
13.05.2015. (utorak) u 19 sati u Umjetničkoj galeriji BiH, Zelenih beretki 8
,
Sarajevo, BiH
 



07.05.2015.



Berlin Congress of 1878 still in force in the Balkans

Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarević



Aegean theatre of the Antique Greece was the place of astonishing revelations and intellectual excellence – a remarkable density and proximity, not surpassed up to our age. All we know about science, philosophy, sports, arts, culture and entertainment, stars and earth has been postulated, explored and examined then and there. Simply, it was a time and place of triumph of human consciousness, pure reasoning and sparkling thought.

 However, neither Euclid, Anaximander, Heraclites, Hippocrates (both of Chios, and of Cos), Socrates, Archimedes, Ptolemy, Democritus, Plato, Pythagoras, Diogenes, Aristotle, Empedocles, Conon, Eratosthenes nor any of dozens of other brilliant ancient Greek minds did ever refer by a word, by a single sentence to something which was their everyday life, something they saw literally on every corner along their entire lives.

 It was an immoral, unjust, notoriously brutal and oppressive slavery system that powered the Antique state. (Slaves have not been even attributed as humans, but rather as the ‘phonic tools/tools able to speak’.) This myopia, this absence of critical reference on the obvious and omnipresent is a historic message – highly disturbing, self-telling and quite a warning.

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April 26, 2015



Can we trust the government to do the right thing?

Belmir Selimovic

 

Can we trust the government to do the right thing, are they really care about essential things such as environmental conditions and education in our life?

First issue here is, should businesses naturally be doing good? In the case if they have more industry agency, answer would be yes. However, when it comes to this case, we can't trust the government because the drilling is taking place with minimal oversight from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Of course I would like to emphasize that fracking is process of drilling and injecting fluid into the ground at a high pressure in order to fracture shale rocks to release natural gas inside. For example, Mr. Wasner lives in Milanville but he moved away for six weeks last year while an exploratory well was drilled nearby.

˝The noise, muddy water pouring from his taps, and chemicals that turned up in a neighbor's well drove him off.˝ The U.S Environmental Protection Agency did not do anything when it comes to this problem. But, President Barack Obama enthusiastically backs gas drilling and these days 90 percent of it is done by fracking. According to the dangersoffracking.com ˝Along with wind, solar, and nuclear power, natural gas is crucial to Obama's goal of producing 80 percent of electricity from clean energy sources by 2035.˝ Thus, each gas well requires an average of 400 tanker trucks to carry water. ˝It takes 1-8 million gallons of water to complete each fracturing job.˝

Fracking has a serious impact on environmental, safety, and health hazards. Also, fracking has a positive side because it is creating thousands of jobs and reviving the economy in state such as Wyoming, Texas, and Louisiana. According to the businessweek.com ˝In Pennsylvania, where 2,516 wells have been drilled in the last three years, $ 389 million in tax revenue and 44,000 jobs came from gas drilling in 2009, according to a Penn State report.˝

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April 25, 2015



Is it time for the rise of local currencies?

Prof. dr. Murray Hunter
 

It's an almost long forgotten historical fact that most trade was undertaken by local based currencies right into the 20th Century. Australia had a number of colonial currencies before federation in 1901. The United States of America had a number of currencies issued by private banks before the Federal Reserve Bank was formed in 1913, and individual states of the European Union had their own national currencies before the mega-currency, the Euro was launched in 1999.

However given the trend to larger and "stronger" currencies, the hype of the Euro, the protection of the US Dollar as the major trading currency, a very quiet trend has been going the other way. In contrast, more than 2,000 local currencies in some form or the other have been launched in communities around the world.

The phenomenon of the local currency almost doesn't exist in contemporary economic literature. Therefore the purpose of this article is to have a look at local currencies, and try and answer the questions; Why do communities launch them? Do local currencies have any benefit to these communities?, and What is the real potential of these currencies?

A local currency, sometimes referred to as a community currency, is a means of exchange used by members of a community that have some common bonds. Any local currency is usually not backed by a national government, nor is officially a legal tender within the region it is circulated. A local currency is usually intended for trade within a limited geographical area.

Money is essentially an agreement to use something as a means of exchange. Any local currency can be denominated by the prevailing national currency, or measured in any commodity, or even labor units to provide create unit value, so people know how to use it as a medium of exchange. This redemption measure is usually a major factor giving users confidence in its present and future value.

A local currency is a potential tool of monetarism, where it helps to define an economic boundary which accepts it as a medium of exchange by certain groups within that location.

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April 14, 2015




Eastern EuropeThe World’s Last Underachiever

Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarević

 

25 years ago, the Russian historical empire melted down. Although often underreported, this also marked the end of alternative society in Europe. Collapse of the II world, made the 3rd way (of Yugoslavia and further, beyond Europe – globally, of the Nonaligned Movement) obsolete.

That 9/11 was a moment when the end of history rested upon all of us, the day when the world became flat. The EU entered East, but only as a ‘stalking horse’ of NATO. No surprise that Eastern Europe –following the slaughter of its pivot, Yugoslavia – has soon after abandoned its identity quest, and capitulated. Its final civilizational defeat came along: the Eastern Europe’s peoples, primarily Slavs, have silently handed over their most important debates – that of Slavism, anti-fascism and of own identity – solely to the recuperating Russophone Europe.

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Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarević

Vienna, 26 MAR 2015
Contact: anis@bajrektarevic.eu

Author is chairperson and professor in international law and global political studies, IMC Krems University of Austria. His previous book FB – Geopolitics of Technology was published by the New York’s Addleton Academic Publishers. His forthcoming book Geopolitics – Europe 100 years later is coming soon. 

All displayed maps per the author’s idea made by Anneliese Gattringer.

Vienna, March 26, 2015



Yemenisation or Confederalisation of Saudi Arabia?
By Brian Whitaker


Click on Picture

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March 27, 2015


Bosnia as Wunderkind – Corruption from Kosovo to Germany

Gerald Knaus

Ugly ducklings, fairy tales and Bosnia in 2015

ESI newsletter 3/2015 - If corruption is serious business, its assessment should be as well.
 

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March 19, 2015



Imperative of an EU-Russia strategic reset

Eirini Patsea

Russia vs. the European Union. It is relationship based and built upon a long history of protracted political conflict. Lately, with the crisis in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed to Russia, the diplomatic relations between the two sides have reached a new historical low. But more importantly, the mistrust among the peoples residing in both sides has reached a new high. Unavoidably so. Since the Western and Russian media started to be viciously launching campaign-like news reports, there is nothing but confusion and loss of perspective by both the peoples and their representatives. The big question is whether this would be the case if the US politics were not involved in the game. Would still Russia and the EU have so many excuses to be driven apart; politically, culturally and ideologically?

After the warmhearted welcome by Peter Haider, UPF Austria President, Prof. Bajrektarevic made more than a challenging opening:

The lonely superpower (US) vs. the bear of the permafrost (Russia), with the world’s last cosmopolite (EU) in between. Is the ongoing calamity at the eastern flank of the EU a conflict, recalibration, imperialism in hurry, exaggerated anti-Russian xenophobia or last gasp of confrontational nostalgia?

Eirini Patsea is a Guest Editor in ModernDiplomacy, and specialist in Cultural Diplomacy and Faith-based Mediation.
First published by www.moderndiplomacy.eu


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March 3, 2015



All European shades of ISIL colour black: Neonazism of Europe and Fascism in the Arab World

By Allan Bogle  

How did Europe manage to drag Arabs to the wrong side of history – a confusion, pride, shame and denial – all which resurfaces again, 75 years after. How is this possible that the ‘never-again’ takes place today? Do we fake our surprise? How expensive is our European denial, and Monarchist Arabs claim of innocence?


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March 4, 2015



Greed is good…but only for cancer

Amna Whiston


Amna Whiston is a London-based writer specialising in moral philosophy. As a PhD candidate at Reading University, UK, her main research interests are in ethics, rationality, and moral psychology.



Don’t be bad with 1%, don’t accuse them for having it all and doing nothing to earn it. 99% firmly believes that a greed is good… Spoiling mood, but being good for your food, as it should?

 ** ** ** **

Amidst the many maladies of today’s global society, a tide of optimism brought by the latest cancer research news reflects a defiant response to one of the biggest challenges facing humanity. But although massive investments that involve venture capital companies and funds may be necessary for the pursuit of current and future large-scale scientific projects and ambitions, it is still sensible to ask the following questions: To what extent should capitalism be credited for rapid progress in cancer research and treatment? Moreover, can the profit motive, being an essential feature of capitalism, justify future investments in bioscience and related fields?

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14.02.2015



70 years after Auschwitz – deliberate attempts to rewrite history

MD Editorial Board

 

The last week’s Auschwitz ceremony marking 70 years since the notorious death camp’s liberation had a huge turnout. Three hundred survivors of the camp attended. Given the age of Holocaust survivors, the importance of passing their story on to new generations has never been greater. Comparing politicians to Hitler or countries to nazi Germany has become a commonplace insult. But the unspeakable horrors unleashed by history’s most vicious regime bear no comparison.

The Holocaust marked a systematic effort to exterminate entire ethnic groups — most prominently the Jews but also the Roma and Sinti — alongside the slaughter of homosexuals and the disabled. Millions of prisoners of war from the Soviet Union, Polish civilians and political and religious opponents of the nazis including communists, trade unionists, Freemasons and Jehovah’s Witnesses were also exterminated.

The world anti-fascist war which defeated the nazis resulted in efforts to ensure such atrocities would never happen again. But the collapse of the Soviet Union — which played by far the greatest part in defeating the fascist menace, as well as being the liberator of Auschwitz — has seen a deliberate attempt to rewrite history.

The European Parliament sponsors a Day of Remembrance for Victims of Stalinism and Nazism, a pernicious attempt to equate communism with fascism. As Russian communist Il Melnikov said yesterday, virulently anti-Russian regimes in the Baltic states openly celebrate Waffen SS veterans.

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11.02.2015



Géométrie variable of a love triangle – India, Russia and the US

Written by the MD’s Board Member Rakesh Krishnan Simha

 

The Modi-Obama romance won’t last as India’s relationship with the US does not have the kind of strategic dimension and weight that marks New Delhi’s ties with Moscow.

**** ***** ******

Russia is a country with which India has had a strategic relationship for decades. America is a place where Indians migrate to for a better lifestyle. That is how Indians view the world’s two leading powers. It’s as simple as that. US President Barrack Obama’s recent visit to India will not change that reality, and those speculating about dramatic changes in India's foreign policy are either fools or amateurs – or both.

“Good relations with the US reflect aspiration, ties with Russia are hard reality,” says Bharat Karnad, professor of national security studies at the Centre for Policy Research. “No substantive shift in policy is on the anvil, certainly nothing at the expense of India's relations with Moscow, especially because, unlike the US, Russia has partnered, and continues to partner, India in strategically sensitive technology projects ranging from missiles, ship submersibles, ballistic, nuclear submarines to the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft,” he told Defense News.

Over the decades a clutch of US presidents has visited India. Likewise, Indian prime ministers have been to America. But the dynamics of the India-US relationship hasn’t changed much. And why would it? The US is the leader of the western world whose prosperity largely rests on the domination of the rest of the world. India, on the other hand, is a member of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) grouping that aims to end the American-led bloc’s dominance.

Modi’s operandi

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11.02.2015



Europe of the human face… with a little help from Greece

by Dimitra Karantzeni

 

Days after the last parliamentary elections, something is eventually moving in Greece. People are hesitant and restrained, do not want to get too excited. However, one can see that a humble smile, between hope and faith, is on faces of Greeks. For the first time in the post-dictatorship period, a leftist government took over the leadership of the country, insisting on its pre-election commitments to overthrow the corrupt political system and reverse the economic disaster.

During the pre-election campaign, voters were bombarded with terrifying messages concerning the day after Syriza’s victory, describing more or less a socio-economic chaos, with banks with no liquidity, a paralyzed public sector and markets out of stock. However, the overall propaganda of terror and intimidation of citizens by the predominant political Parties not only failed to limit the social impact of SYRIZA’s actions, but it also seems that the will of determination of the new government somehow managed to positively affect the rest of Europe.
The negotiation process is still ongoing but what Syriza has achieved so far is that its well prepared anti-austerity plan today gives the impression not of just a grand-standing utopic program but of a specific project built on realistic bases.

What is of high importance though is that this political change in Greece has stimulated a great wave of active support from various European leftist political parties, helping Syriza to immediately avoid the risk of diplomatic isolation. Furthermore, for different reasons of geopolitical importance both the US and Russia have a very positive attitude towards the new Greek government, strengthening its negotiating power against EU lenders. On the one hand, a closer cooperation between the two orthodox countries would benefit the development of Greek energy sector, even set Greece as a major strategic player in the international negotiations field about energy and at the same time provide Putin with a valuable European ally. Besides, Greek refusal to approve an EU statement aiming to expand sanctions against Moscow is a first good step in that direction. On the other hand, Washington couldn’t but respond to this diplomatic game by supporting the end of austerity, recalling US bad fiscal experiences and expressing its concerns about EU, which is currently lacking a tangible plan for growth in Europe.

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11.02.2015



The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has analysed the current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina in view of the delayed process of setting up the government following the general election that took place on 12 October 2014. The most interesting sections from the analysis entitled “Bosnia and Herzegovina: German-British initiative overshadowed by party political games” are published below.

Bosnia and Herzegovina:
German-British initiative overshadowed by party political games

JOINT ACTION BY SNSD AND SBB

A delay in setting up the government in Bosnia and Herzegovina following the general election that took place on 12 October 2014 is mostly the result of obstructions caused by Milorad Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) from Republika Srpska (RS) and Fahrudin Radončić's Union for a Better Future (SBB) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH). While SNSD is aguishly trying to enter the government at the state level, SBB – being excluded from the post-election coalition forming – is concocting plans to get hold of power, even using its Avaz daily newspaper to create a negative political atmosphere in Bosnia and Herzegovina, inciting riot among the citizens and preparing last year's February protests scenario. Clearly SNSD and SBB are making a joint action - their delegates carried out a joint attempt to overthrow the President of the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina Šefik Džaferović (SDA). Moreover, analysts have related the activities of the outgoing Vice President of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Mirsad Kebe with attempted obstructions aimed at slowing down or preventing the formation of government by SDA-HDZ-DF-Alliance for Changes, thus promoting the formation of another parliamentary coalition composed of SNSD, SBB and even SDP.

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January 31, 2015



On history and humility: What students need to know ?

Rattana Lao
 

Rattana Lao holds a doctorate in Comparative and International Education from Teachers College, Columbia University and is currently teaching in Bangkok.

BANGKOK – Not so long ago, some Thai university students used Hitler image as the poster child for superhero and just recently, the Thai state used Nazi symbol in their propaganda for education. This short documentary intends to promote the 12 values of education. These values include respect seniority, desire for knowledge and understand democracy.

Democracy and Hitler?
To make things worse, the director of the film gave public interview seeing nothing wrong with it. Kulp Kaljaruek, the director, said to Khaosod, one of the Thai newspapers that “ I didn't think it would be an issue. As for Hitler's portrait, I have seen so many people using it on T-Shirts everywhere. It's even considered a fashion. It doesn't mean I agree with it, but I didn't expect it to be an issue at all." Seriously?  The Ambassador of Israel to Thailand, His Excellency Simon Roded, issued a public statement on the 10
th of December 2014. It read:
I was surprised that throughout the screening process this movie must have gone through to be approved for public broadcast, none of the smart, well educated people checking it had identified it as being problematic and offensive.”
In an interview with Thailand's renown historian, professor Thanet Aphornsuwan, the problem that has happened reflects an endemic problem in Thailand.



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January 24, 2015.



GLOBAL MARKETS OF MISERY

Marján Attila[1] – Szuhai Ilona[2]

Is our The global humanitarian system in transition? If so, what are the key issues bBefore the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit
"Today's needs are at unprecedented levels and without more support there simply is no way to respond to the humanitarian situations we're seeing in region after region and in conflict after conflict."

António Guterres, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees

Abstract
The international community is preparing for the World Humanitarian Summit. The United Nations will host the event in Istanbul, in 2016. Before the meeting, regional consultations are held in several parts of the world. Expectations are high since the historical moment of changing the twenty-five-year-old humanitarian system is approaching. Growing conflicts demand growing funds for humanitarian action. The change in the trends of conflicts demands more effective humanitarian solutions. 2014 was a dramatic year in the number of people affected by conflict and of being forced to flee. Unprecedentedly, more than 100 million people became dependent on humanitarian aid for their survival. This rise is reflected in the inter-agency strategic response and regional response plans as global financial requirements to cover humanitarian needs rose to the highest amount ever requested in a single year. The study forecasts how the EU can continue the donor activities in the future.

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January 24, 2015.



Human rights violations inside EU
What is the Ostrich Protocol?

H.E. Dr. Walter Schwimmer
 

How the EU member states play ostrich when it comes to human rights violations inside EU?

H.E. Dr. Walter Schwimmer -
Vice Chair of the Modern Diplomacy Advisory Board, Former Secretary General of the Council of Europe - Chairman of the International Coordinating Committee of the World Public Forum – Dialogue of Civilizations


The Treaty on the European Union, in its current format also known as the Lisbon Treaty, as well as the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights claim to establish an area of freedom, security and justice, founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and the respect for human rights[1]. That sounds perfect. After centuries of inhuman treatment of people very often by their own governments, culminating in the tyrannies of communism and Nazism in the 20th century, EU citizens should be able to feel safe from brutal attacks and illegal operations of a violent state, if not ....If they are not refugees from another EU member state and they do not try to look for protection because they were subject in their own state to political persecution, inhuman treatment or even torture.


The Geneva Convention about status of and asylum for refugees, persons subject to political persecution, is one of the great international achievements in the field of human rights. The European Union as a successful project of peace, freedom and justice promises in Art.18 of its Charter that "the right to asylum shall be guaranteed with due respect for the rules of the Geneva Convention..[2]" But why is this guarantee denied when the asylum seeker comes from an EU country?


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January 19, 2015



FUTURE OF DAVOS IS IN KYRGYZSTAN

Francesco Brunello Zanitti

 

Francesco Brunello Zanitti, Southern Asia Research Program’s Director, and one of the Scientific Directors of the Italian Institute for Advanced Studies in Geopolitics and Auxiliary Sciences (Istituto di Alti Studi in Geopolitica e Scienze Ausiliarie – IsAG, Rome). Member of Editorial Committee of “Geopolitica” (IsAG’s journal) Rome.

Is the new Russian approach towards China and India, vector for a multipolar world order? Will the new Davos – gathering between vanity fair and summit of the mightiest – in future take place in Kyrgyzstan – Central Asian country surrounded by the most prosperous and promising powers?


The last months of 2014 were marked by a series of significant bilateral agreements and summits involving Russia, India and China. According to many international analysts, the research of better relations with the two Asian giants by Moscow represents another further step towards global transformation from an unipolar order ruled by United States to a multipolar one.

A key point in order to analyze the fundamental reasons of Moscow’s approach towards China and India is connected to difficulties emerged in the last year with European Union and United States. Complications in Russia-West relations are clearly exemplified by the Ukrainian imbroglio.

However, it’s also necessary to dwell on long-term strategic interests of the countries involved. Despite the current shaky situation of Eastern Europe and Middle East, generally speaking Beijing and New Delhi look at Russia as a reliable partner with whom it’s fundamental continue to dialogue, cooperate and trade. China-Russia dialogue is growing from mid-nineties, while Indian strategic relationship with Moscow is heir of the one established during Cold War with Soviet Union. Moreover, it should not to be underestimate the fact that Russia, India and China are already actively cooperating in other multilateral organizations, such as BRICS forum (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), and have the opportunity to develop new platforms for political, economic and military cooperation, for example within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The strategic triangle Russia-India-China (RIC), taken into account difficulties of relations especially considering Indo-Chinese bond characterized at the same time by cooperation and competition, could therefore be an interesting model of dialogue in the new multipolar world order.

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January 14, 2015



The Paris Killings: Who Are the Real Heroes of Press Freedom?

By Jamil Maidan Flores
 


By Jamil Maidan Flores

Placards are seen placed amongst other tributes to the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo on the statues at the Place de la Republique in Paris on Saturday. (Reuters Photo/Youssef Boudlal)



In the wake of the terrorist assault last week on the offices of the French magazine “Charlie Hebdo,” in which 12 persons were killed, many people all over the world were moved to say, in an outpouring of anger at the perpetrators and sympathy for the victims, “I am Charlie.”

Apart from two police officers, who were slain as they responded to the attack, the victims were cartoonists and editors marked for death by Muslim extremists because of their slanderous depiction of the Prophet of Islam in past issues of the magazine.

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January 12, 2015



Denazification – urgently needed in Europe


Anis H. Bajrektarevic,

 

There is a claim constantly circulating the EU: ‘multiculturalism is dead in Europe’. Dead or maybe d(r)ead?... That much comes from a cluster of European nation-states that love to romanticize their appearance thought the solid Union, as if they themselves lived a long, cordial and credible history of multiculturalism. Hence, this claim is of course false. It is also cynical because it is purposely misleading. No wonder, as the conglomerate of nation-states/EU has silently handed over one of its most important debates – that of European anti-fascistic identity, or otherness – to the wing-parties, repeatedly followed by the selective and contra-productive foreign policy actions.

The Paris shooting, terrible beyond comprehension, will reload and overheat those debates. However, these debates are ill conceived, resting from the start on completely wrong and misleading premises. Assassins in the Parisian Satirical Magazine are Islamofascists. The fact that these individuals are allegedly of the Arab-Muslim origins does not make them less fascists, less European, nor does it abolish Europe from the main responsibility in this case.

Fascism and its evil twin, Nazism are 100% European ideologies. Neo-Nazism also originates from and lately unchecked blossoms, primarily in Europe. (Some would say, über-economy in the center of continent, surrounded from all sides by the recuperating neo-fascism.) The Old continent tried to amortize its deepening economic and demographic contraction by a constant interference on its peripheries, especially meddling on the Balkans, Black Sea/Caucasus and MENA (Middle East–North Africa). What is now an epilogue? A severe democratic recession. Whom to blame for this structural, lasting civilizational retreat that Europe suffers? Is it accurate or only convenient to blame a bench of useful idiots for returning home with the combating behavior?

Read more on the next page:


http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=481:den&Itemid=569

January 8, 2015


PUBLICATIONS:


   Refugees as a means to an end – The EU's most dangerous man - ESI

   Empty Dayton straw - Vlastimir Mijovic

   Muslim Australia and the search for a solution to the "War on Terror" - Prof. Murray Hunter

   The Rebirth of the Patriarch of Moscow: Vladimir Putin’s politics in harmony with the Orthodox Church - By Dr Filippo ROMEO

   SIMULTANEOUS REGIONAL HEAD ELECTIONS IN INDONESIA 2015 - By Igor Dirgantara

   The Future of Turkey after the Last Elections: the Kurdish question and the economic outlook - Diego Del Priore

   The Power of Geopolitical Discourse - By Diego Solis

   YOGA DIPLOMACY - By Umesh MUKHI

   The debt write-off behind Germany's 'economic miracle' - By Benjamin DODMAN

   Europe – Syriza-ize or Syria-nize - Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic

   Europe Agonistes: A Divided Continent Plays Out a Greek Drama - Jamil Maidan Flores

   Bosnian Myths[1] - Dubravko Lovrenović

   Bosnia and Herzegovina: The final phase of genocide? - Director IFIMES: Bakhtyar Aljaf

   Geopolitics - Europe of Sarajevo 100 years later by Anis Bajrektarević

   Berlin Congress of 1878 still in force in the Balkans - Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic

   Can we trust the government to do the right thing? - Belmir Selimovic

   Is it time for the rise of local currencies? - Prof. dr. Murray Hunter

   Eastern Europe – The World’s Last Underachiever - Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarević

   Yemenisation or Confederalisation of Saudi Arabia? - By Brian Whitaker

   Bosnia as Wunderkind – Corruption from Kosovo to Germany - Gerald Knaus

   Imperative of an EU-Russia strategic reset - Eirini Patsea

  All European shades of ISIL colour black: Neonazism of Europe and Fascism in the Arab World - By Allan Bogle

   Greed is good…but only for cancer - Amna Whiston

   70 years after Auschwitz – deliberate attempts to rewrite history - MD Editorial Board

   Géométrie variable of a love triangle – India, Russia and the US - Rakesh Krishnan Simha

  
Europe of the human face… with a little help from Greece - by Dimitra Karantzeni

   Bosnia and Herzegovina: German-British initiative overshadowed by party political games - Bakhtyar Aljaf

   On history and humility: What students need to know? - Rattana Lao

   GLOBAL MARKETS OF MISERY - Marján Attila – Szuhai Ilona

   Human rights violations inside EU - H.E. Dr. Walter Schwimmer

   FUTURE OF DAVOS IS IN KYRGYZSTAN - Francesco Brunello Zanitti

   The Paris Killings: Who Are the Real Heroes of Press Freedom? - By Jamil Maidan Flores

   Denazification – urgently needed in Europe - Anis H. Bajrektarevic

   Paris Massacre and Islamic Terror - Dr Hubertus Hoffmann

   COLOR REVOLUTIONS: TECHNIQUES IN BREAKING DOWN MODERN POLITICAL REGIMES - ANDREI MANOILO[1], OLEG KARPOVICH[2]

   Lima 2014: Climate Change – Humans Remain the Same - Anis H. Bajrektarevic

   THE ASIAN SQUARE DANCE – PART IV - By Michael Akerib

   NEW AGE DIPLOMACY - Samantha Brletich

   Nuclear Commerce – essentials - Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic and Petra Posega

   THE ASIAN SQUARE DANCE – THIRD PART - By Michael Akerib

   Vietnamese Australians’ Community: Realities and Prospect - By Prof. Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan
 


 






Koninkrijk Belgie - Monarchie Belgique










Maasmechelen Village


Maasmechelen Village




Adria




BALKAN AREA
BALKAN AREA




prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic
prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

Editor - Geopolitics, History, International Relations (GHIR) Addleton Academic Publishers - New YorK

Senior Advisory board member, geopolitics of energy Canadian energy research institute - ceri, Ottawa/Calgary

Advisory Board Chairman Modern Diplomacy & the md Tomorrow's people platform originator

Head of mission and department head - strategic studies on Asia
Professor and Chairperson Intl. law & global pol. studies



Critical Similarities and Differences in SS of Asia and Europe - Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic



MENA Saga and Lady Gaga - (Same dilemma from the MENA) - Anis H. Bajrektarevic



Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Assos. Prof.[1] Nguyen Linh[2]
HE ONGOING PUBLIC DEBT CRISIS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: IMPACTS ON AND LESSONS FOR VIETNAM - Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Assos. Prof.[1] Nguyen Linh[2]



Carla BAUMER
Climate Change and Re Insurance: The Human Security Issue SC-SEA Prof. Anis Bajrektarevic & Carla Baumer



 
Igor Dirgantara
(Researcher and Lecturer at the Faculty of Social and Politics, University of Jayabaya)




Peny Sotiropoulou

Is the ‘crisis of secularism’ in Western Europe the result of multiculturalism?




Dr. Emanuel L. Paparella

A Modest “Australian” Proposal to Resolve our Geo-Political Problems

Were the Crusades Justified? A Revisiting - Dr. Emanuel L. Paparella




Alisa Fazleeva earned an MA in International Relations from the University of East Anglia in Norwich, United Kingdom in 2013. Her research interests include foreign policy decision-making, realism and constructivism, and social psychology and constructivism.



 
Corinna Metz is an independent researcher specialized in International Politics and Peace & Conflict Studies with a regional focus on the Balkans and the Middle East.




Patricia Galves Derolle
Founder of Internacionalista
São Paulo, Brazil
Brazil – New Age





Dimitra Karantzeni
The political character of Social Media: How do Greek Internet users perceive and use social networks?

 


Michael Akerib
Vice-Rector
SWISS UMEF UNIVERSITY




  
Petra Posega
is a master`s degree student on the University for Criminal justice and Security in Ljubljana. She obtained her bachelor`s degree in Political Science- Defense studies.


Contact: posegap@live.com





Samantha Brletich, George Mason University School of Policy, Government, and Intl. Relations She focuses on Russia and Central Asia. Ms. Brletich is an employee of the US Department of Defense.


Prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarević